← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| Málaga CF win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Málaga CF −0.75 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Castellon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rafa Garrido · Málaga CF |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jeremy Mellot · Castellon |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Eneko Jauregi · Málaga CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Salvador Ruiz · Castellon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Francisco Montero · Málaga CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 88' | 🟨 | Agustín Sienra · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Castalia |
| Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| coach days | 93.00 | 93.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1464.78 | 1473.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.55 | 3.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |