← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Castellon win | 24% | 4.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Castellon −0.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.59 |
| Under | 40% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 43' | 🟨 | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daijiro Chirino · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Castellon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | UD Almeria Stadium |
| coach days | 86.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1566.02 | 1488.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.99 | 32.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.50 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.70 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |