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Las Palmas 3–1 Eibar

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win43%2.20
Draw33%3.05
Eibar win24%4.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.2552%1.90
Eibar −0.2548%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.52
Over35%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'⚽Ale García · Las Palmas
60'🟨Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
66'⚽Miloš Luković · Las Palmas
83'⚽Javier Martón Ansó · Eibar
86'🟨Marvin Park · Las Palmas
90'🟨Alex Suárez · Las Palmas
90'⚽Enrique Clemente · Las Palmas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots9
9On target2
1Corners5
16Fouls17
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.440.81
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
coach days79.0079.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.07
dominance (last 5)0.520.47
elo1548.431518.99
elo momentum (last 5)21.93-9.52
eye test v1-0.83-0.30
eye trend v1-0.36-0.21
first sub minute (last 10)57.7057.90
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.740.79
league points18.0015.00
league rank5.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)60.8052.60
rest days9.027.20
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg1.801.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2012.80
skill v11.480.41
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.00
squad age24.7526.64
state index0.38-0.28
sterile dominance v11.560.39
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.170.21
threat rate (last 5)0.170.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20