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Cordoba 1–1 Almeria

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win38%2.54
Cordoba win34%2.80
Draw28%3.54

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria +053%1.86
Cordoba +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Arnau Puigmal · Almeria
39'🟨Aridane Hernández · Almeria
41'⚽ (pen)Jacobo · Cordoba
54'🟨Carlos Albarrán · Cordoba
68'🟨Álex Centelles · Almeria
89'🟨Kevin Villodres · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots13
5On target4
3Corners2
17Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.560.56
cards avg (last 5)3.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days79.0079.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.082.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.58
elo1435.401543.22
elo momentum (last 5)26.2128.83
eye test v10.070.90
eye trend v1-0.23-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)50.7051.10
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.570.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.45
keeper form v10.670.64
league points13.0019.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank7.0014.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.2084.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2055.20
rest days5.928.00
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg1.181.73
shot diff avg (last 5)5.605.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.2016.60
skill v10.790.94
sot against avg (last 5)5.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.506.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.20
squad age—23.29
state index0.190.48
sterile dominance v10.150.13
threat rate (last 10)0.280.31
threat rate (last 3)0.270.31
threat rate (last 5)0.300.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20