← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alonso De Ena Wolf, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 60% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.25 |
| Albacete win | 18% | 5.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Albacete −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Castellon −1 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Agus Medina · Albacete |
| 21' | 🟨 | Pepe Sánchez · Albacete |
| 30' | 🟨 | Salvador Ruiz · Castellon |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ronaldo · Castellon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ronaldo · Castellon |
| 57' | 🟥 | Ronaldo · Castellon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fran Gámez · Albacete |
| 63' | 🟨 | Lucas Alcazar · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommaso De Nipoti · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Agus Medina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Albacete |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Castalia |
| 90' | 🟥 | Higinio Marín · Albacete |
| coach days | 79.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1482.41 | 1499.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.92 | 31.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |