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Castellon 0–1 Albacete

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Alonso De Ena Wolf, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win60%1.65
Draw22%4.25
Albacete win18%5.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete −152%1.85
Castellon −148%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.69
Under43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Agus Medina · Albacete
21'🟨Pepe Sánchez · Albacete
30'🟨Salvador Ruiz · Castellon
40'🟨Ronaldo · Castellon
57'🟨Ronaldo · Castellon
57'🟥Ronaldo · Castellon
57'🟨Fran Gámez · Albacete
63'🟨Lucas Alcazar · Castellon
90'🟨Tommaso De Nipoti · Castellon
90'🟥Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
90'🟨Agus Medina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots11
5On target8
9Corners3
14Fouls18
5Yellow cards3
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCastellonAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.630.66
cards avg (last 5)3.001.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Castalia
· Albacete
90'🟥Higinio Marín · Albacete
coach days79.0079.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.332.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.630.56
elo1482.411499.51
elo momentum (last 5)59.9231.94
eye test v10.400.10
eye trend v1-0.550.16
first sub minute (last 10)55.0051.00
form points (last 5)13.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.69
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.500.66
league points15.0013.00
league rank9.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2075.20
possession avg (last 5)52.6043.00
rest days7.007.09
scorer concentration0.270.38
season ppg1.501.30
shot diff avg (last 5)5.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.60
skill v10.32-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)2.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.60
state index0.590.31
sterile dominance v10.16-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.24
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60