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Andorra (club) 0–0 Granada

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 17, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) win44%2.21
Granada win28%3.52
Draw28%3.50

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) −0.2551%1.90
Granada −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Aingeru Olabarrieta · Andorra (club)
68'🟨Rubén Alcaraz · Granada
78'🟨Marc Bombardo · Andorra (club)
78'🟨Souleymane Faye · Granada
79'🟨Jastin García · Andorra (club)
90'🟨Sergio Molina · Andorra (club)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots13
3On target4
5Corners3
16Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Granada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.28
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.05
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)2.201.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi de la FAF
coach days77.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.49
elo1430.301509.91
elo momentum (last 5)-27.0137.51
eye test v10.53-0.63
eye trend v1-0.320.20
first sub minute (last 10)54.6052.00
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.90
h2 goals (last 10)—0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.73—
league points14.0012.00
league rank11.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)56.8044.40
rest days6.087.00
scorer concentration0.270.18
season ppg1.401.20
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.8010.60
skill v11.20-0.32
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
squad age—26.06
state index-0.670.27
sterile dominance v10.76-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.230.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00