⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Cadiz 1–0 Huesca

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: German Cid Camacho, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win41%2.32
Draw32%2.97
Huesca win26%3.87

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca −0.2551%1.99
Cadiz −0.2549%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under65%1.48
Over35%2.85

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Rodrigo Abajas · Huesca
50'🟨Julio Alonso · Huesca
63'🟨Iker Recio · Cadiz
65'🟨Daniel Luna · Huesca
70'⚽Iuri Tabatadze · Cadiz
82'🟨Iza Carcelén · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots9
2On target1
13Corners2
12Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.470.58
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Mirandilla
coach days72.0072.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.123.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.15
dominance (last 5)0.370.50
elo1530.371493.74
elo momentum (last 5)4.98-21.61
eye test v1-0.68-1.16
eye trend v10.080.15
first sub minute (last 10)57.2053.40
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.790.67
league points16.0013.00
league rank5.0011.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8080.00
possession avg (last 5)41.8051.40
rest days6.908.00
scorer concentration0.380.25
season ppg1.781.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.60
skill v1-0.590.31
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.302.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.00
squad age28.22—
state index0.10-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.160.66
threat rate (last 10)0.220.19
threat rate (last 3)0.190.18
threat rate (last 5)0.210.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60