← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 35% | 2.77 |
| Burgos win | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 33% | 2.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burgos +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 65% | 1.48 |
| Over | 35% | 2.80 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Mario González · Burgos |
| -5' | 🟨 | Kevin Appin · Burgos |
| 8' | 🟨 | Ivan Garriel Muñoz · Valladolid |
| 21' | 🟨 | Miguel Atienza · Burgos |
| 22' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Valladolid |
| 35' | 🟨 | Víctor Meseguer · Valladolid |
| 44' | 🟨 | Iván Morante · Burgos |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Lizancos · Burgos |
| 55' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ivan Cantalejo · Valladolid |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sergio González |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 28 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| 73' | 🟨 | Stanko Jurić · Valladolid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fernando Niño · Burgos |
| 75' | 🟨 | Stipe Biuk · Valladolid |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Torres · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Cantalejo · Valladolid |
| coach days | 72.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1480.11 | 1446.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.97 | -10.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.76 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |