← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 11, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Luis Bestard Servera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 57% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.80 |
| Zaragoza win | 18% | 5.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Zaragoza −0.75 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Álex Muñoz · Almeria |
| 22' | 🟨 | Raúl Guti · Zaragoza |
| 44' | 🟨 | Toni Moya · Zaragoza |
| 49' | ⚽ | Daijiro Chirino · Almeria |
| 51' | ⚽ | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · Zaragoza |
| 87' | 🟨 | Álex Centelles · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arnau Puigmal · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Soberón · Zaragoza |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 14 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | UD Almeria Stadium |
| coach days | 71.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.48 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1536.06 | 1394.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.62 | -2.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |