← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
| Burgos win | 27% | 3.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Huesca −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over | 30% | 3.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Toni Abad · Huesca |
| 40' | ⚽ | Daniel Luna · Huesca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sergio González · Burgos |
| 52' | 🟨 | Oscar Sielva · Huesca |
| 68' | 🟨 | Grego Sierra · Burgos |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | David González · Burgos |
| 78' | 🟨 | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuel Ntamack Ndimba · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Alcoraz |
| coach days | 64.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1485.36 | 1488.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.07 | 30.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.17 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |