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Andorra (club) 1–2 Leganes

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 4, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) win41%2.44
Draw31%3.10
Leganes win29%3.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes −0.2552%1.85
Andorra (club) −0.2548%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.73
Over43%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

48'⚽Duk · Leganes
51'⚽Naim García · Leganes
78'🟨Marvel · Leganes
80'🟨Sebastián Figueredo · Leganes
86'⚽Gael Alonso · Andorra (club)
90'🟨Alex Petxa · Andorra (club)
90'🟨Alex Petxa · Andorra (club)
90'🟥Alex Petxa · Andorra (club)
90'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Leganes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots11
4On target5
7Corners1
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Leganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.36
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.20
box share (last 5)0.520.63
cards avg (last 5)2.404.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi de la FAF
coach days64.0064.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.52
elo1471.551559.06
elo momentum (last 5)24.60-22.11
eye test v10.75-0.34
eye trend v10.33-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)57.5057.70
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.05
h2 goals (last 10)—0.20
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.40
keeper form v10.800.72
league points14.007.00
league rank7.0019.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0049.20
rest days7.004.92
scorer concentration0.300.40
season ppg2.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.209.80
skill v10.760.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.60
squad age—30.04
state index0.29-0.09
sterile dominance v10.180.44
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.14
threat rate (last 5)0.280.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60