← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos win | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.02 |
| Málaga CF win | 22% | 4.48 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Burgos −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.44 |
| Over | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Dani Lorenzo · Málaga CF |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kevin Appin · Burgos |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rafa Rodriguez · Málaga CF |
| 33' | 🟨 | Diego Murillo · Málaga CF |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fernando Niño · Burgos |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aitor Córdoba · Burgos |
| 63' | 🟨 | Miguel Atienza · Burgos |
| 74' | 🟨 | David González · Burgos |
| 76' | ⚽ | Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 88' | 🟨 | Einar Galilea · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| 90' | 🟨 | Einar Galilea · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟥 | Einar Galilea · Málaga CF |
| coach days | 58.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1480.50 | 1469.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.09 | 9.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 43.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.82 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |