← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.41 |
| Almeria win | 28% | 3.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Almeria −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Gui · Almeria |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 46' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Almeria |
| 58' | 🟥 | Miloš Luković · Las Palmas |
| 65' | 🟨 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 65' | 🟥 | Adrián Embarba · Almeria |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marvin Park · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Viti Rozada · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 57.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1552.05 | 1521.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.87 | -14.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.75 | 23.29 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |