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Eibar 1–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: German Cid Camacho, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win39%2.51
RC Deportivo La Coruña win31%3.12
Draw30%3.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.2554%1.79
Eibar −0.2546%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.73
Over45%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽ (pen)Yeremay Hernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña
24'🟨Marco Moreno · Eibar
33'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
64'🟨Leonardo Buta · Eibar
70'🟨Zakaria Eddahchouri · RC Deportivo La Coruña
73'🟨Germán Parreño · RC Deportivo La Coruña
75'🟨Aleix Garrido · Eibar
83'🟨Arnau Comas · RC Deportivo La Coruña
85'🟨Miguel Loureiro · RC Deportivo La Coruña
88'🟨Rubén López · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots9
10On target3
6Corners2
13Fouls13
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.700.70
cards avg (last 5)1.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua
⚽
Malcom Ares · Eibar
2.00
coach days57.0057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.202.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.04
dominance (last 5)0.600.60
elo1533.631534.13
elo momentum (last 5)4.9862.43
eye test v10.360.81
eye trend v1-0.190.92
first sub minute (last 10)58.5056.00
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.75
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.800.67
league points13.0017.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank2.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4085.00
possession avg (last 5)51.4052.40
rest days6.007.92
scorer concentration0.250.38
season ppg1.862.43
shot diff avg (last 5)4.204.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.8014.60
skill v10.440.83
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.80
squad age26.64—
state index0.460.94
sterile dominance v1-0.100.14
threat rate (last 10)0.300.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.33
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40