← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ceuta win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.37 |
| Zaragoza win | 26% | 3.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Ceuta −0.5 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 12' | 🟨 | Juan Sebastian Serrano · Zaragoza |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jose Luis Zalazar · Ceuta |
| 29' | 🟨 | Carlos Hernández · Ceuta |
| 36' | 🟨 | Youness Lachhab · Ceuta |
| 36' | 🟨 | Paulino De la Fuente · Zaragoza |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kialy Abdoul Kone · Ceuta |
| 67' | ⚽ | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ceuta | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube |
| coach days | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1458.76 | 1397.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.24 | -22.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 44.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | — | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.81 | 5.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 0.20 |