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Leganes 0–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win40%2.40
Draw32%3.01
Las Palmas win28%3.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.2553%1.88
Leganes −0.2547%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.58
Over40%2.47

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Diego García · Leganes
19'🟨Mika Mármol · Las Palmas
34'🟨Miloš Luković · Las Palmas
43'🟨Seydouba Cisse · Leganes
52'⚽Ale García · Las Palmas
55'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Leganes
60'🟨Seydouba Cisse · Leganes
60'🟥Seydouba Cisse · Leganes
75'🟨Sergio Barcia · Las Palmas
85'🟨Ale García · Las Palmas
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots3
3On target1
2Corners4
23Fouls16
7Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
box share (last 5)0.640.54
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
Álex Millán
· Leganes
90'🟨Roberto López · Leganes
90'🟨Amadou Diawara · Leganes
90'🟨Marvin Park · Las Palmas
coach days50.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.802.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.402.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.842.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.450.65
elo1587.141539.04
elo momentum (last 5)1.4011.90
eye test v10.090.42
eye trend v10.040.46
first sub minute (last 10)60.6055.40
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v1—0.68
league points7.0011.00
league rank13.007.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4084.00
possession avg (last 5)48.0055.40
rest days5.907.92
scorer concentration0.400.33
season ppg1.401.83
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.606.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.60
skill v10.040.93
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age30.0424.75
state index0.270.23
sterile dominance v10.300.53
threat rate (last 10)0.250.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80