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Andorra (club) 1–1 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Alonso De Ena Wolf, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Andorra (club) win53%1.87
Draw26%3.60
Mirandes win20%4.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes −0.7553%1.83
Andorra (club) −0.7547%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.83
Over47%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Min-su Kim · Andorra (club)
16'🟨Fernando Medrano · Mirandes
21'⚽Daniel Villahermosa · Andorra (club)
26'⚽ (pen)Carlos Fernández · Mirandes
32'🟨Martín Pascual · Mirandes
35'🟨Iker Cordoba · Mirandes
82'🟨Rafael Bauza · Mirandes
85'🟨Marti Vila Garcia · Andorra (club)
85'🟨Sergio Postigo · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots7
6On target2
8Corners4
15Fouls22
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAndorra (club)Mirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.45
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.00
box share (last 5)0.480.55
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi de la FAF
coach days50.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.12
dominance (last 5)0.470.33
elo1457.311534.44
elo momentum (last 5)31.56-19.74
eye test v10.80-0.46
eye trend v10.510.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.6062.40
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.52
h2 goals (last 10)—1.10
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.780.48
league points10.006.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.006.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4074.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6041.20
rest days6.197.09
scorer concentration0.250.40
season ppg2.001.20
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-8.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.607.80
skill v10.64-0.83
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.60
squad age—22.40
state index0.27-0.38
sterile dominance v10.31-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40