← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 47% | 2.12 |
| Cultural Leonesa win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.82 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Cultural Leonesa +0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 11' | ⚽ | Diego Barri · Castellon |
| 23' | 🟨 | Adam Jakobsen · Castellon |
| 33' | 🟨 | Lucas Alcazar · Castellon |
| 48' | 🟨 | Barri · Castellon |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ronaldo · Castellon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Thiago Ojeda · Cultural Leonesa |
| 64' | ⚽ | Manu Justo · Cultural Leonesa |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kenneth Obinna Mamah · Castellon |
| 86' | 🟨 | Rodri Suárez · Cultural Leonesa |
| 89' | 🟥 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cultural Leonesa | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Reino de León |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Jiménez · Castellon |
| coach days | 50.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1422.97 | 1422.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.99 | -34.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | -1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |