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Cultural Leonesa 1–3 Castellon

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 20, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon win47%2.12
Cultural Leonesa win28%3.40
Draw25%3.82

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Castellon +0.2553%1.86
Cultural Leonesa +0.2547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.74
Under45%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Álex Calatrava · Castellon
11'⚽Diego Barri · Castellon
23'🟨Adam Jakobsen · Castellon
33'🟨Lucas Alcazar · Castellon
48'🟨Barri · Castellon
55'🟨Ronaldo · Castellon
57'🟨Thiago Ojeda · Cultural Leonesa
64'⚽Manu Justo · Cultural Leonesa
82'⚽Kenneth Obinna Mamah · Castellon
86'🟨Rodri Suárez · Cultural Leonesa
89'🟥

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
10Shots13
2On target8
1Corners4
15Fouls11
2Yellow cards6
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCultural LeonesaCastellon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.40
blown lead rate (last 20)—0.10
box share (last 5)0.480.69
cards avg (last 5)0.801.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Reino de León
Ivan Calero
· Cultural Leonesa
90'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Castellon
coach days50.0050.00
comeback rate (last 20)—0.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.003.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.805.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.808.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.403.38
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.20
dominance (last 5)0.380.53
elo1422.971422.50
elo momentum (last 5)5.99-34.08
eye test v1-0.660.33
eye trend v1-0.02-0.58
first sub minute (last 10)57.6054.30
form points (last 5)4.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.40
h2 goals (last 10)—0.70
ht lead rate (last 20)—0.20
keeper form v10.68—
league points4.002.00
league rank18.0022.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.0020.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)42.2058.80
rest days6.005.91
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.670.40
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.60
skill v1-0.290.68
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.206.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.20
state index-0.29-1.00
sterile dominance v1-0.100.81
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00