← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 63% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.63 |
| Ceuta win | 16% | 6.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Castellon −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Ceuta −1 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 14' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Brignani · Castellon |
| 16' | ⚽ | Agustín Sienra · Castellon |
| 32' | ⚽ | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 35' | 🟨 | Albert Caparrós · Ceuta |
| 39' | 🟨 | Pablo Santiago · Castellon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yago Cantero · Ceuta |
| 47' | ⚽ | Matos · Ceuta |
| 59' | ⚽ | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yago Cantero · Ceuta |
| 69' | 🟥 | Yago Cantero |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Castalia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marcos Fernández · Ceuta |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marc Olivier Doue · Castellon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samuel Obeng · Ceuta |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Israel Suero · Castellon |
| coach days | 44.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | — |
| elo | 1423.22 | 1458.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.93 | -41.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 52.50 |
| rest days | 8.88 | 7.19 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | — |