← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 44% | 2.31 |
| Almeria win | 28% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.5 | 56% | 1.75 |
| Valladolid −0.5 | 44% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Guilherme Fernandes · Valladolid |
| 14' | 🟨 | Nélson Monte · Almeria |
| 21' | ⚽ | Marcos André · Valladolid |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gui · Almeria |
| 56' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Valladolid |
| 56' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 71' | 🟨 | Víctor Meseguer · Valladolid |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Arribas · Almeria |
| 77' | 🟨 | Peter González · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanmi Latasa · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 28 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Bonini · Almeria |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Juanmi Latasa · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mario Maroto · Valladolid |
| coach days | 43.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1456.64 | 1522.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.14 | -6.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.71 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 23.29 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |