← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: E. Mallo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.49 |
| Málaga CF win | 21% | 4.79 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Málaga CF −0.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.65 |
| Over | 41% | 2.35 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Diego Murillo · Málaga CF |
| 11' | 🟨 | Victor Garcia Marin · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Miloš Luković · Las Palmas |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rafa Rodriguez · Málaga CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Enrique Clemente · Las Palmas |
| 74' | 🟨 | Francisco Montero · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlos Dotor · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Gran Canaria |
| coach days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1540.19 | 1476.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.07 | 5.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 48.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.92 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.75 | — |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |