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Cordoba 1–3 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Mon, Aug 25, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Ojaos

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win48%2.03
Draw28%3.44
Las Palmas win24%3.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.552%1.87
Cordoba −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.83
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Marvin Park · Las Palmas
20'⚽Miloš Luković · Las Palmas
24'🟨Franck Fomeyem · Cordoba
43'🟨Carlos Albarrán · Cordoba
59'⚽Ale García · Las Palmas
83'⚽Enrique Clemente · Las Palmas
89'⚽Adrian Fuentes · Cordoba
90'🟨Álex Martín · Cordoba
90'🟨Théo Zidane · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots13
5On target5
3Corners2
20Fouls16
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.680.50
cards avg (last 5)2.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
coach days24.0024.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.02
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.133.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.550.53
elo1421.671527.14
elo momentum (last 5)-35.78-42.44
eye test v10.91-0.64
eye trend v10.200.10
first sub minute (last 10)49.7056.90
form points (last 5)1.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.640.69
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.007.00
matches since win6.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0080.00
possession avg (last 5)64.8053.00
rest days7.108.00
season ppg0.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)4.601.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.6011.40
skill v11.540.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.802.80
squad age—24.75
state index-0.87-0.66
sterile dominance v10.870.47
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.320.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80