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Mirandes 0–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. A. Gonzalez Esteban

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca win42%2.39
Draw32%3.02
Mirandes win25%4.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huesca +0.2551%2.02
Mirandes +0.2549%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under68%1.43
Over32%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Sergi Enrich · Huesca
43'🟨Ismael Barea · Mirandes
49'🟨Jorge Pulido · Huesca
54'🟨Marino Illescas · Mirandes
73'🟨Thiago Helguera · Mirandes
81'🟨Julio Alonso · Huesca
88'🟨Martín Pascual · Mirandes
90'🟨Juan Gutiérrez · Mirandes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots6
2On target2
1Corners4
16Fouls13
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.720.69
cards avg (last 5)0.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Mendizorrotza
coach days22.0022.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.202.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.18
dominance (last 5)0.460.55
elo1544.441493.34
elo momentum (last 5)2.74-6.76
eye test v1-0.25-0.02
eye trend v1-0.46-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.2052.00
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v1—0.76
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.008.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6082.80
possession avg (last 5)41.2054.60
rest days5.905.81
season ppg0.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.002.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.20
skill v1-1.100.78
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age22.40—
state index0.27-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.600.35
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.160.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.20