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Eibar 3–0 Granada

← Segunda División 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Muniz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win50%1.96
Draw28%3.40
Granada win22%4.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar −0.550%1.97
Granada −0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.57
Over39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Oscar Naasei Oppong · Granada
22'⚽Javier Martón Ansó · Eibar
36'🟨Loïc Williams · Granada
47'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
59'🟨Loïc Williams · Granada
59'🟥Loïc Williams · Granada
60'⚽Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
64'🟨Diego Hormigo · Granada
66'🟨Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar
70'⚽Álvaro Rodriguez · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots3
6On target0
6Corners3
23Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.640.67
cards avg (last 5)1.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurua
coach days21.0021.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.002.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.18
dominance (last 5)0.560.52
elo1514.391509.32
elo momentum (last 5)33.29-32.48
eye test v10.720.46
eye trend v10.220.07
first sub minute (last 10)59.3052.60
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.50
keeper form v1—0.69
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4083.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8053.20
rest days6.005.92
season ppg1.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)3.202.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.2014.60
skill v10.220.72
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.60
squad age26.6426.06
state index0.49-0.31
sterile dominance v1-0.450.19
threat rate (last 10)0.250.28
threat rate (last 3)0.330.28
threat rate (last 5)0.310.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80