← Segunda División 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Arcediano
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 47% | 2.03 |
| Castellon win | 27% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Castellon −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio El Sardinero |