← Segunda División 2025-26 · Fri, Aug 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: J. A. Gonzalez Esteban
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burgos win | 51% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.28 |
| Cultural Leonesa win | 20% | 4.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Burgos −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Cultural Leonesa −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 64% | 1.53 |
| Over | 36% | 2.70 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |