← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Jun 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Rafael Sánchez
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cordoba win | 56% | 49% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.35 | fair |
| Albacete win | 22% | 27% | 4.33 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cordoba −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Albacete −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 1.34 |
| Under | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 37 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Arcángel |