← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, May 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Rubén Ávalos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 40% | 42% | 2.39 | fair |
| Eldense win | 35% | 31% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.77 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Eldense +0 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pablo Rodríguez · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 10' | 🟨 | David Timor · Eldense |
| 11' | 🟨 | Alvaro Mantilla · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 19' | ⚽ | Dario Đumić · Eldense |
| 31' | 🟨 | Iván Martos · Eldense |
| 36' | 🟨 | Javi Llabrés · Eldense |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jon Karrikaburu · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 55' | ⚽ | Diego Collado · Eldense |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fran Gámez · Eldense |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrés Martín · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eldense | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marco Sangalli · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simo Bouzaidi · Eldense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amadou Diawara · Eldense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Carlos Arana · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | ⚽ | Juan Carlos Arana · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ivan Chapela · Eldense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 144.00 | 906.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1420.13 | 1548.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.21 | -5.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 45.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.99 | 26.15 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |