← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 40% | 29% | 2.43 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
| Huesca win | 30% | 38% | 3.31 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Huesca +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Elche CF +0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
| 17' | 🟨 | Oscar Sielva · Huesca |
| 29' | ⚽ | Alvaro Núñez · Elche CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rubén Pulido · Huesca |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marc Aguado · Elche CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
| 58' | 🟥 | Germán Valera · Elche CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 79' | ⚽ | Diego González · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio El Alcoraz |
| Iker Unzueta Arregui · Huesca |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joaquín Muñoz · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 594.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1513.87 | 1600.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.10 | -2.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.72 |
| league points | 61.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 1.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.16 | 28.53 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |