← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 75% | 56% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 26% | 5.76 | value: +48% |
| Cartagena win | 9% | 18% | 12.92 | value: +135% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Cartagena −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Marcos Luna · Zaragoza |
| 4' | ⚽ | Nacho Martinez · Cartagena |
| 10' | ⚽ | Raúl Guti · Zaragoza |
| 14' | ⚽ | José Machín · Cartagena |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Luna · Cartagena |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Cartagena |
| 66' | 🟨 | Malcom Ares · Zaragoza |
| 77' | 🟨 | Raúl Guti · Zaragoza |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gaetan Poussin · Zaragoza |
| 87' | ⚽ | Alberto Mari · Zaragoza |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 37 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Cartagena |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de la Romareda |
| Andrija Vukčević · Cartagena |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Gómez · Zaragoza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Julián Delmás · Cartagena |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dani Gómez · Zaragoza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 70.00 | 129.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.26 |
| elo | 1457.15 | 1332.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.28 | -7.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 46.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 27.34 |
| state index | -0.02 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |