← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, May 9, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 51% | 34% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 23% | 40% | 4.23 | value: +71% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria +0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Cadiz +0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.82 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 3' | 🟨 | Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz |
| 6' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 30' | 🟥 | Kaiky · Almeria |
| 34' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Melero · Almeria |
| 51' | 🟥 | Bruno Langa · Almeria |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fernando Martínez · Almeria |
| 67' | 🟨 | Javier Ontiveros · Cadiz |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Melero · Almeria |
| 70' | 🟨 | Fali · Cadiz |
| 70' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cadiz | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla |
| Alejandro Pozo · Almeria |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Cadiz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Carlos Fernández · Cadiz |
| 90' | ⚽ | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 159.00 | 342.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1527.81 | 1549.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.80 | -15.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 52.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.82 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |