← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 54% | 57% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tenerife −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Levante UD −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Yann Bodiger · Tenerife |
| 32' | ⚽ | Álejandro Cantero · Tenerife |
| 51' | 🟨 | David Rodríguez Ramos · Tenerife |
| 73' | 🟨 | Édgar Badía · Tenerife |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jorge Cabello · Levante UD |
| 81' | 🟨 | Aarón Martín · Tenerife |
| 88' | 🟨 | Unai Elgezabal · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Fernández · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Landázuri · Tenerife |
| 90' | 🟥 | Fabio González · Tenerife |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| ⚽ |
| Roger Brugué · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 337.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1619.78 | 1468.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.33 | 41.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 70.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.91 | 6.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.71 | 30.68 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |