← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, May 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eibar win | 35% | 48% | 2.75 | value: +32% |
| Draw | 33% | 28% | 2.89 | fair |
| Mirandes win | 32% | 24% | 3.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eibar +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Mirandes +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 67% | 1.43 |
| Over | 33% | 2.92 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |