← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, May 2, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: Oliver De La Fuente
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 50% | 46% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Cadiz win | 23% | 28% | 4.26 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cordoba −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Cadiz −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba |
| 34' | 🟥 | David Gil · Cadiz |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Jacobo · Cordoba |
| 47' | ⚽ | Roger Martí · Cadiz |
| 57' | 🟨 | Xavi Sintes · Cordoba |
| 59' | ⚽ | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Cadiz |
| 72' | 🟨 | Iza Carcelén · Cadiz |
| 72' | 🟨 | Víctor Chust · Cadiz |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba |
| 84' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 5 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cordoba | Cadiz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio Nuevo Arcángel |
| Antonio Casas · Cordoba |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 701.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.56 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1474.32 | 1543.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.77 | -3.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.69 |
| league points | 52.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 29.37 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |