← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Orellana
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 51% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 24% | 26% | 4.10 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Campos de Sport de El Sardinero |