← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Jon González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 53% | 48% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.21 | fair |
| Burgos win | 16% | 23% | 6.00 | value: +38% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mirandes −0.5 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Burgos −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 66% | 1.46 |
| Over | 34% | 2.86 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Mirandes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Mathis Lachuer · Mirandes |
| 24' | 🟨 | Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Álex Sancris · Burgos |
| 51' | ⚽ | Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes |
| 54' | 🟨 | David González · Burgos |
| 56' | ⚽ | Álex Sancris · Burgos |
| 58' | 🟨 | Marcelo Expósito · Burgos |
| 80' | 🟨 | Iker Benito · Mirandes |
| 85' | ⚽ | Joel Roca · Mirandes |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | Burgos |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Anduva |
| 🟨 |
| Florian Miguel · Burgos |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Ojeda · Burgos |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 665.00 | 207.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1522.67 | 1491.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -54.19 | 28.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.83 |
| league points | 60.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 7.98 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 28.00 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |