← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 19, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huesca win | 40% | 44% | 2.43 | value: +6% |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Huesca −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio El Alcoraz |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Vallejo · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rubén Pulido · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javier Pérez Mateo · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟥 | Hugo Vallejo · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Carlos Arana · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | ⚽ | Juan Carlos Arana · Real Racing Club de Santander |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 566.00 | 870.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1551.37 | 1553.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.37 | -11.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.20 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 60.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 4.82 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 25.61 |
| state index | 0.14 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |