← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 40% | 34% | 2.43 | fair |
| Almeria win | 33% | 41% | 2.88 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Castellon −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.37 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 8' | 🟨 | Léo Baptistão · Almeria |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sergio Moyita · Castellon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 51' | 🟨 | Álex Calatrava · Castellon |
| 61' | 🟨 | Juan Escobar · Castellon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ousmane Camara · Castellon |
| 71' | ⚽ | Israel Suero · Castellon |
| 82' | ⚽ | Israel Suero · Castellon |
| 88' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Castellon | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio SkyFi Castalia |
| 🟨 |
| Aleksandar Radovanović · Almeria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 107.00 | 321.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1440.80 | 1555.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.44 | -6.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.10 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 43.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 26.99 |
| state index | -0.32 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |