← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Marta Huerta
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Almeria win | 82% | 73% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 18% | 9.00 | value: +58% |
| Cartagena win | 7% | 10% | 18.17 | value: +78% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Almeria −2 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Cartagena −2 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 28 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand