← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Sergiu Muresan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandes win | 50% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 21% | 29% | 4.70 | value: +37% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mirandes −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Diego Villares · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 4' | 🟨 | José Ángel Jurado · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 18' | 🟨 | Nemanja Tošić · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 42' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Mirandes |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joel Roca · Mirandes |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Omenuke Mfulu · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 76' | 🟨 | Adrián Butzke · Mirandes |
| 80' | 🟨 | Hugo Rincón · Mirandes |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ivan Barbero · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mirandes | RC Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Anduva |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Eguíluz · Mirandes |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Yeremay Hernández · RC Deportivo La Coruña |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1555.36 | 1525.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.75 | 7.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| league points | 59.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.19 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |