← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Sesma
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 36% | 30% | 2.68 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 33% | 42% | 2.95 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cordoba +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Málaga CF +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Nikolay Obolskiy · Cordoba |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pedro Ortiz · Cordoba |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kevin Villodres · Málaga CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Sánchez · Málaga CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jacobo · Cordoba |
| 52' | 🟨 | Alex Sala · Cordoba |
| 61' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Málaga CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marvel · Cordoba |
| 81' | 🟨 | Cristian Carracedo · Cordoba |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Magunazelaia · Cordoba |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Cordoba |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadio La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 826.00 | 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1486.40 | 1458.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.10 | -4.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 7.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 26.64 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |