← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 52% | 51% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
| Real Racing Club de Santander win | 22% | 22% | 4.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Levante UD −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Real Racing Club de Santander −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 46' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adrián de la Fuente · Levante UD |
| 71' | 🟨 | Carlos Álvarez · Levante UD |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jorge Cabello · Levante UD |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alvaro Mantilla · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álex Forés · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oriol Rey · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | Javier Castro · Real Racing Club de Santander |
| 90' | ⚽ | Álex Forés · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Real Racing Club de Santander |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1614.81 | 1569.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.83 | 5.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 63.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 7.86 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.78 | 25.87 |
| state index | 0.58 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |