← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 02:15 PM UTC · ref: Germán Cid
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Oviedo win | 26% | 27% | 3.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Eibar −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 68% | 1.41 |
| Over | 32% | 3.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Javi Martínez · Eibar |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kwasi Sibo · Oviedo |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jaime Seoane · Oviedo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Eibar |
| 37' | 🟨 | José Corpas · Eibar |
| 42' | 🟨 | Oier Luengo · Oviedo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Eibar |
| 64' | ⚽ | Alemão · Oviedo |
| 81' | 🟨 | Iván Gil · Eibar |
| 84' | 🟨 | César de la Hoz · Oviedo |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa |
| Federico Viñas · Oviedo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nacho Vidal · Oviedo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Mikel Magunagoitia · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 63.00 | 35.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1513.71 | 1550.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.47 | -24.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 46.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 4.82 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.89 | 28.80 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |