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Albacete 3–2 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win38%2.57
Draw31%3.07
Mirandes win31%3.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete +056%1.77
Mirandes +044%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.66
Over42%2.32

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Pablo Sáenz · Albacete
40'🟨Victor Parada · Mirandes
42'🟨Alberto Reina · Mirandes
45'⚽ (pen)Mathis Lachuer · Mirandes
47'⚽Christian Kofane · Albacete
56'⚽Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes
79'🟥Agus Medina · Albacete
90'🟨Nabil Touaizi · Albacete
90'🟨Higinio Marín · Albacete
90'⚽Higinio Marín · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots12
5On target3
5Corners6
16Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.65
cards avg (last 5)1.602.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days394.00638.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.202.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.55
elo1507.041555.50
elo momentum (last 5)57.0813.91
eye test v10.17-0.11
eye trend v10.05-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)48.4064.70
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.760.78
league points47.0059.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2073.40
possession avg (last 5)45.8046.40
rest days7.057.96
scorer concentration0.190.35
season ppg1.381.79
shot diff avg (last 5)0.602.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.20
skill v1-0.11-0.60
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age—22.40
state index0.780.20
sterile dominance v1-0.53-0.56
threat rate (last 10)0.290.31
threat rate (last 3)0.340.28
threat rate (last 5)0.300.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40