← Segunda División 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 21, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel González
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 37% | 2.59 |
| Burgos win | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.10 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burgos +0.25 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Almeria +0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.56 |
| Over | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Marcelo Expósito · Burgos |
| 16' | 🟨 | Kaiky · Almeria |
| 30' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Melero · Almeria |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lucas Robertone · Almeria |
| 42' | 🟨 | Aitor Córdoba · Burgos |
| 56' | 🟨 | Arnau Puigmal · Almeria |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marcelo Expósito · Burgos |
| 67' | ⚽ | Fernando Niño · Burgos |
| 70' | 🟨 | Curro · Burgos |
| 84' | ⚽ | Iñigo Cordoba · Burgos |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anderson Arroyo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burgos | Almeria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de El Plantío |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lázaro · Almeria |
| coach days | 171.00 | 293.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1441.20 | 1540.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.47 | -3.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.18 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.29 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |