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Eldense 2–2 Mirandes

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: José Sánchez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eldense win37%2.59
Draw32%2.96
Mirandes win30%3.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes −0.2555%1.77
Eldense −0.2545%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.53
Over37%2.61

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Juan Gutiérrez · Mirandes
24'🟨Marc Mateu · Eldense
49'⚽Jon Gorrotxategi · Mirandes
61'⚽Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes
63'⚽Víctor García · Eldense
66'🟨Matia Barzić · Eldense
78'🟨Unai Eguíluz · Mirandes
90'🟨Victor Parada · Mirandes
90'🟨Joaquin Panichelli · Mirandes
90'⚽ (pen)Juanto Ortuño · Eldense

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots4
1On target1
2Corners3
6Fouls2
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEldenseMirandes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.690.62
cards avg (last 5)3.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat
coach days74.00624.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.592.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.04
dominance (last 5)0.470.56
elo1430.291548.91
elo momentum (last 5)47.8718.65
eye test v1-0.39-0.12
eye trend v1-0.01-0.45
first sub minute (last 10)62.5065.50
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.700.79
league points35.0055.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6072.60
possession avg (last 5)40.0044.40
rest days7.717.91
scorer concentration0.170.35
season ppg1.131.77
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.403.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6013.60
skill v1-0.90-0.80
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age—22.40
state index0.130.38
sterile dominance v1-1.18-0.92
threat rate (last 10)0.320.30
threat rate (last 3)0.290.29
threat rate (last 5)0.320.30
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80