⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Almeria 4–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win58%1.66
Draw24%3.90
Zaragoza win17%5.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria −0.7553%1.86
Zaragoza −0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under50%1.93
Over50%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Dion Lopy · Almeria
6'⚽Edgar González · Almeria
16'⚽Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria
25'⚽ (og)Edgar González · Zaragoza
45'🟨Marcos Luna · Zaragoza
45'⚽Nicolás Melamed · Almeria
53'⚽Marc Pubill · Almeria
80'🟥Samed Baždar · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
17Shots5
4On target0
8Corners3
9Fouls18
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.730.59
cards avg (last 5)2.802.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueUD Almería Stadium
coach days287.0014.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.742.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.20
dominance (last 5)0.570.55
elo1530.511435.38
elo momentum (last 5)-14.83-30.04
eye test v10.740.46
eye trend v1-0.020.54
first sub minute (last 10)58.2060.20
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points49.0037.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet8.006.00
matches since win9.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2079.80
possession avg (last 5)48.4057.00
rest days7.986.90
scorer concentration0.330.18
season ppg1.531.16
shot diff avg (last 5)5.203.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.0014.20
skill v10.150.67
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)5.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.20
squad age23.29—
state index-0.49-0.90
sterile dominance v1-0.570.44
threat rate (last 10)0.290.23
threat rate (last 3)0.350.32
threat rate (last 5)0.330.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80