← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Palencia
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 58% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| Zaragoza win | 17% | 5.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Zaragoza −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Dion Lopy · Almeria |
| 6' | ⚽ | Edgar González · Almeria |
| 16' | ⚽ | Luis Javier Suárez · Almeria |
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Edgar González · Zaragoza |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcos Luna · Zaragoza |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nicolás Melamed · Almeria |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marc Pubill · Almeria |
| 80' | 🟥 | Samed Baždar · Zaragoza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | UD Almería Stadium |
| coach days | 287.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1530.51 | 1435.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.83 | -30.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 49.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.98 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.29 | — |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |