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Albacete 2–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 15, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win49%1.96
Draw29%3.40
Málaga CF win22%4.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.550%1.93
Albacete −0.550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.28

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Christian Kofane · Albacete
19'🟨Pablo Sáenz · Albacete
20'⚽Jon Morcillo · Albacete
25'🟥Christian Kofane · Albacete
26'🟥Antonio Pacheco · Albacete
32'🟥Izan Merino · Málaga CF
76'🟨Carlos Puga · Málaga CF
86'🟨Agus Medina · Albacete
88'🟨Juanpe · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots21
3On target4
3Corners8
8Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.520.51
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Carlos Belmonte
coach days379.00804.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.812.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.10
dominance (last 5)0.540.51
elo1458.591471.90
elo momentum (last 5)-2.381.51
eye test v1-0.12-0.53
eye trend v1-0.03-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)52.8051.60
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.75—
league points38.0042.00
league rank18.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6081.60
possession avg (last 5)45.8055.40
rest days4.826.00
scorer concentration0.170.22
season ppg1.231.35
shot diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.80
skill v1-0.070.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index-0.00-0.12
sterile dominance v1-0.350.90
threat rate (last 10)0.260.18
threat rate (last 3)0.250.18
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40