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Málaga CF 0–2 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Dámaso Arcediano

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win36%2.73
Draw33%2.94
Málaga CF win32%3.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz +053%1.84
Málaga CF +047%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under63%1.54
Over37%2.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

80'🟨Rubén Sobrino · Cadiz
81'🟨Joseba Zaldúa · Cadiz
83'⚽Óscar Melendo · Cadiz
85'⚽Matos · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots6
1On target2
6Corners4
18Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.570.75
cards avg (last 5)2.402.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio La Rosaleda
coach days798.0098.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.09
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.581.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.19
dominance (last 5)0.470.56
elo1488.741505.79
elo momentum (last 5)11.92-1.54
eye test v1-0.380.10
eye trend v10.170.12
first sub minute (last 10)52.1050.80
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.89
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
keeper form v1—0.72
league points42.0038.00
league rank10.0017.00
matches since blank11.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0044.00
rest days7.806.91
scorer concentration0.220.30
season ppg1.401.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.403.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.4011.80
skill v10.80-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.60
squad age—28.22
state index0.08-0.03
sterile dominance v10.87-0.67
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.200.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60