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Mirandes 2–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 3, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Pérez

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win43%2.35
Draw30%3.12
Tenerife win27%5.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes −0.551%1.90
Tenerife −0.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under67%1.44
Over33%2.90

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Urko Izeta · Mirandes
30'🟨Juan Gutiérrez · Mirandes
64'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
68'⚽Alberto Reina · Mirandes
76'🟨Sergio González · Tenerife
84'🟨Teto · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots11
5On target1
3Corners0
13Fouls19
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.650.75
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
coach days611.0092.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.76
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.52
elo1533.811379.88
elo momentum (last 5)7.01-7.85
eye test v10.29-0.27
eye trend v1-0.230.49
first sub minute (last 10)60.8059.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.641.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.760.58
league points49.0020.00
league rank7.0022.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8076.40
possession avg (last 5)48.8047.60
rest days8.0810.00
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg1.690.69
shot diff avg (last 5)4.000.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.4011.60
skill v10.05-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.502.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.60
squad age22.40—
state index0.36-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.44-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.300.22
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20